Ponies are Driving the Market

OK so, Weds is my blog day and I always look forward to spending a few minutes writing. This morning began like any other Weds – I brought my computer into my art studio, got comfortable and began to put down some ideas to share. But it didn’t come so easy today and the results of my efforts were rather dry but informative so I figured what the heck, I can’t be brilliant every time.

But when I went to upload my entry I discovered my internet connection was kaput. Now that wouldn’t normally be any big deal but on top of the sewer back up, the hailstorm, the basement flood, my assistant quitting, 2 deals falling through it was the proverbial straw!

To my rescue came my wonderful biz partner, Lil, who encouraged me to shift my perspective by telling me a story that I want to share with you:

There was a psychiatrist doing a study on tolerance levels and how individuals respond to adversity. For his experiment he filled a large room 4 feet deep with horse manure and then invited various people to enter the room. Every single person who entered the room was filled with disgust - except one young boy. When the boy entered and immediately began diving and building, rolling around, making snowmen and building wacky structures. After an hour or so the boy finished playing and exited the room. The psychiatrist was fascinated by the boy’s reaction and wanting to understand why his reaction was so different asked the boy, “So talk to me. What were you thinking in there?” The boy’s response . . . “With that much horse shit I figured there had to be a pony in there somewhere!”

Thanks for the wisdom and the laugh Lil! And now on to the original blog entry.

Just the Facts! Real Estate Market Update

If you haven’t heard yet the Denver real estate market is shifting.

For the first time in years median home prices were a little higher in July 2009 at $229,900 than July 2008, at $229,200. The average home price Jan-July 2009 vs. the same period 2008 is down 6% compared to an 8% drop in the period Jan-May 2009. The price range from $200-$300K saw the most activity this July.

The drop in Denver single-family (DSF) unit volume, Jan-Jul 2009 vs. the same period in 2008 is down 18% compared to –21% Jan-May.

These numbers might not sound like anything to shout about but when we consider bank-owned properties under $185K we see the beginnings of a return to property selling at a premium.

For the DSF homes that sold in 5 days or less, the discount has been history since about Feb 2008. In July of this year these distressed properties sold at an 8.5% premium. Homes selling in 10-30 days the typical property started selling at a premium, not a discount, in August 2008 and that premium has grown to about a 3% average. Bank Owned or REO properties taking more than 30 days to sell continue to sell at a discount, but that discount is declining. Regular homes in the under %185K range are still selling at a modest discount of about 2% and this has been steady for a while.