Thursday, September 24, 2009

Its Official – Denver’s Real Estate Market has Hit Bottom!

This statement is accurate for homes priced in the under $350K range. How do we know this? The numbers tell us. Several factors play into the rally. Low interest rates, the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, pent up demand among Sellers, and a shift in the composition of distressed property sales to name a few.

REO volume, after strong gains for four years, is running at 2007 levels so far this year. REO volume, Jan-July, declined 31% between 2008 and 2009 and in June of 2008 hit an all time high of 1300 bank owned closings. As of Q1 2009 that number has plummeted to just above 600. Short Sales are on the rise from a low in January of 2008 of about 95 up to just under 400 in July 2009.

This recent run-up in foreclosures and short sales mirrors Denver’s last foreclosure boom. Last time (which peaked in 1988 at 3.8% of Denver homes in foreclosure), it took four years to fully recover from the foreclosure hangover. This time the peak came in 2008 at 3.5%.

And even though overall sales volume is still down, average detached-single-family property discounts have been trending up (2.7% discount) for regular homes, but have declined dramatically (-.5% discount) in recent months for foreclosure properties. REO homes under $185K are increasingly selling at a premium, not a discount, if they are under contract in less than 5 days (selling at premium of 8.5%). Intense competition and multiple bids are driving up prices. A strong sign that we are have hit the bottom and are on the rise.

What’s next for home prices? Our Guesses for 2009:
• Higher price points will have more REO activity
• Inexpensive homes under $200K will appreciate
• Mid-Priced homes $200-$350K have much less REO activity, sales volume has held steady in many areas and might continue in 2009
• Near-Luxury homes $350-$1MM with more than 12 months of inventory is a Strong Buyers market and prices will come under pressure for the few sellers that must sell
• Luxury homes ($1MM+) is a train wreck with over 60 months of inventory this will be the last segment to recover.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

I Walk the Line

“Papa bought this house when I was four years old. I’m sure that crack was there when we moved in. I’ve never even thought about it before because its been that way since I can remember.” . . . Forty years of family life in a single place - home. Birthday gatherings, Christmas mornings, BBQ’s, high school proms, Sunday suppers, running through the garden, building forts, sobs of sadness, screams of laughter. Into this hallowed space enters a buyer.

“Does this crack indicate structural issues? Why are all the window sills a different type of marble? We can always just tear it out and open this up. This will need to be dealt with.” The potential new owners of the home, for this brief and unique moment, the time between first seeing their new home and the moment they move in to begin building a life there, see 2 worlds – the one that has been and the one that will be. “We instantly saw entertaining guests well into the evening in a setting by which all who enter will undoubtedly be enchanted . . . the sweet home and all the land on which it sits feels hidden away from all the rest of the world. . . magical . . . like a retreat . . . just waiting for us.”

As an agent, I walk a fine line; on one side: working to stay present to the world of the Seller – attached yet needing to move on – on the other side: the world of the Buyer – desirous to own a new home yet cautious lest they take on more than can be comfortably handled. Buying and selling a home is an enormous financial transaction, one that takes skill, knowledge and great attention to detail. It is also a powerful emotional transition.

As artists our personal space is tremendously important. For performers home provides sanctuary from the public nature of our lives. For painters it may be the inspiration that fills canvases. For a musician the structure may be the sound proofing necessary to record our latest opus. For the writer it may provide a room of one’s own to ponder our thoughts. For a filmmaker it may contain the dark corner to view our work.

Home means something different to each individual or couple with whom I work and there are always at least two sides to every story, two sides of the line. One is letting go; the other is taking hold, stepping into the future. I am grateful to be walking that line between past and future. Many thanks to those of you who have invited me into your process. And for those of you who are considering making a transition I would be honored to walk the line with you.

“I think the most significant work we ever do,
in the whole world, in our whole life,
is done within the four walls of our own home.”
Stephen R. Covey

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Ponies are Driving the Market

OK so, Weds is my blog day and I always look forward to spending a few minutes writing. This morning began like any other Weds – I brought my computer into my art studio, got comfortable and began to put down some ideas to share. But it didn’t come so easy today and the results of my efforts were rather dry but informative so I figured what the heck, I can’t be brilliant every time.

But when I went to upload my entry I discovered my internet connection was kaput. Now that wouldn’t normally be any big deal but on top of the sewer back up, the hailstorm, the basement flood, my assistant quitting, 2 deals falling through it was the proverbial straw!

To my rescue came my wonderful biz partner, Lil, who encouraged me to shift my perspective by telling me a story that I want to share with you:

There was a psychiatrist doing a study on tolerance levels and how individuals respond to adversity. For his experiment he filled a large room 4 feet deep with horse manure and then invited various people to enter the room. Every single person who entered the room was filled with disgust - except one young boy. When the boy entered and immediately began diving and building, rolling around, making snowmen and building wacky structures. After an hour or so the boy finished playing and exited the room. The psychiatrist was fascinated by the boy’s reaction and wanting to understand why his reaction was so different asked the boy, “So talk to me. What were you thinking in there?” The boy’s response . . . “With that much horse shit I figured there had to be a pony in there somewhere!”

Thanks for the wisdom and the laugh Lil! And now on to the original blog entry.

Just the Facts! Real Estate Market Update

If you haven’t heard yet the Denver real estate market is shifting.

For the first time in years median home prices were a little higher in July 2009 at $229,900 than July 2008, at $229,200. The average home price Jan-July 2009 vs. the same period 2008 is down 6% compared to an 8% drop in the period Jan-May 2009. The price range from $200-$300K saw the most activity this July.

The drop in Denver single-family (DSF) unit volume, Jan-Jul 2009 vs. the same period in 2008 is down 18% compared to –21% Jan-May.

These numbers might not sound like anything to shout about but when we consider bank-owned properties under $185K we see the beginnings of a return to property selling at a premium.

For the DSF homes that sold in 5 days or less, the discount has been history since about Feb 2008. In July of this year these distressed properties sold at an 8.5% premium. Homes selling in 10-30 days the typical property started selling at a premium, not a discount, in August 2008 and that premium has grown to about a 3% average. Bank Owned or REO properties taking more than 30 days to sell continue to sell at a discount, but that discount is declining. Regular homes in the under %185K range are still selling at a modest discount of about 2% and this has been steady for a while.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

When Disaster Strikes!

When disaster strikes – keep a cool head, ask lots of questions, bring in professionals, and use the ear of good friends. In the past 10 days my home has sustained damage from a record breaking hail storm, a sewer back up and a flash flood rain that left 3” of standing water in my basement and soaked the entire south end of my home in brackish water. Suffice it to say that the feelings I explored in last Weds’ blog came to roost in a big way.



As is true in most events like this, the power is not so much in what has already happened but in what one learns from the experience.

Keep a cool head! Take a deep breath and do your best to assess the situation for what it actually is. Take care to keep the emotional reactions and fears out of the decision process. Take time to learn what is really happening and learn what factors are actually feeding the process. And most important take time to make the money decisions.

Bring in professionals! After 2 days of investigation by men from the City of Lakewood’s Water & Sewer Department, A+ Handyman, and 3 different technicians from $99, Rooter (favorite support resources for my real estate business) we were able to piece together several contributing factors that had converged to leave me quite literally treading as fast as I could to keep my head above water.

Ask lots of questions! There truly are no stupid questions. And keep questioning until what you are hearing and seeing make full and complete sense to you. “Why” & “How” were particularly illuminating during this process. Why is the water coming up here? How is the water supposed to flow? Why do you think this is the answer? How do you know (fill in the blank)? Extensive questioning will:
1) gently guide the professionals to continue thinking until they get to the bottom of the issue,
2) add to your knowledge (granted you may never have wanted to know this stuff),
3) keep you and the professionals on the same side working together to fix the problem preventing the sometimes adversarial role that can arise,
4) empower you to stay engaged in solving the problem and distract your mind from spiraling into freak-out fear.

Use the ear of good friends! Saturday’s flood came on the eve of what was to be a party of 70 or so people celebrating their “Sexy”. My dear friends Nader, Pier, Dave, Laura & Rod, Leslie, Lil, Terry each pitched in to sweep out water, get the word out about canceling the party, listening when my head was not so cool, care for my clients while I dealt with contractors and offer words of comfort & encouragement. Thanks my dear ones. I am lucky to have you in my life.

It is my sincere hope that none of you face the calamities described here. If however, the gods decide differently, I or another talented real estate professional can be an invaluable resource for getting things back on track. So if you have need of a plumber, or are considering a renovation project, or are curious about how to suck a few hundred gallons of water out of your basement shoot me an email at la@thrivingartistalliance.com or give me a call 303-726-1051 – I can help.

A special thanks to Jim Forth at Bancroft Clover - Don’t get me wrong, I’m bummed I have to pay for the dig but your responsiveness was impressive.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Persist without exception

My life is so full of marvelous things that at times I am overwhelmed with gratitude and the joy it brings. But if I am to be honest with myself, I must also admit to experiencing days on which I am equally overwhelmed with stress, worry and even fear stemming from the 3 full-time jobs I am undertaking at the moment: mother to three growing boys, full-time real estate agent and the creation of a new and soon to be national enterprise - Thriving Artist Alliance. On those rare yet emotionally depleting days when I suffer these negative concerns I find comfort and strength in the words of Andy Andrews from his book "The Traveler's Gift: Seven Decisions to a Successful Life". The story follows protagonist, David Ponder, at what is perhaps the worst moment in his life. He encounters an angel who takes him back in time to visit with a variety of historical figures each of whom has important words of wisdom to share about a decision that was key in his/her life. David learns one important "decision" from each character that once made the decision will be the difference between misery or mastery.

The Buck Stops Here
I accept responsibility for my past. I control my thoughts. I control my emotions.
I am responsible for my success.
The buck stops here.

I Will Seek Wisdom
I will be a servant to others I will listen to the counsel of wise men.
I will choose my friends with care.
I will seek wisdom.

I Am a Person of Action
I am courageous. I am a leader. I seize this moment.
I choose Now.
I am a person of action.

I Have a Decided Heart
I will not wait. I am passionate about my vision for the future.
My course has been charted. My destiny is assured.
I have a decided heart.

Today I Will Choose to be Happy
I will greet each day with laughter. I will smile at every person I meet.
I am the possessor of a grateful spirit.
Today I will choose to be happy.

I Will Greet This Day with a Forgiving Spirit
I will forgive even those who do not ask for forgiveness. I will forgive those who criticize me unjustly. I will forgive myself.
I will greet this day with a forgiving spirit.

I Will Persist Without Exception
I will continue despite exhaustion. I will focus on results.
I am a person of great faith.
I will persist without exception.

I have written the Seven Decisions on my bathroom mirror in china marker so that I can read them every morning as I prepare for my day and every night as I prepare for sleep. Considering the difficulties we've faced recently with the dip in our economy, wars waging in several countries, unemployment on the rise . . . the list goes on and on, the ideas expressed in the 7 Decisions have helped me build a life of happiness, a business worth continuing to build and a future that thrills and excites me. I strongly recommend Andy's books. Perhaps there you too can find something of value. Check out Andy's web site: www.andyandrews.com

Friday, July 10, 2009

Carpe diem baby!!!

Richard Florida, in his book, “Rise of the Creative Class” identifies creativity as the distinguishing marker for the next wave of leaders and producers in our society.

Society is changing & the driving force of this change is the rise of human creativity as the key factor in our economy and society. The creative individual is no longer viewed as an iconoclast. I have great news for you. We, as creatively minded people, are the new mainstream. Creativity is becoming highly valued. Systems are evolving to encourage and harness new ideas, new technologies, new industries, new wealth. All other economic things flow from creativity. Creativity is essential to the way we live and work today. Human creativity is multi-faceted and multi-dimensional. It involves distinct kinds of thinking & habits that must be cultivated both in the individual and the surrounding society. Creatively minded people are indeed the chief currency of the emerging economic age. And our economic function is to create new ideas, new technology and/or new creative content. We engage in complex problem solving. We can never be forced to work but are never truly not at work.

Paul Romer claims the “the most important ideas of all are ‘meta ideas’ – ideas that support the production and transmission of other ideas”. Thriving Artist Alliance is a meta idea! We are committed to supporting the creative.

Einstein said, “Every act of creation is at first an act of destruction.” Thriving Artist Alliance is engaging in what economist Joseph Schumpeter called, “the perennial gale of creative destruction”. What TAA is destroying is the Starving Artist Archetype - an outdated archetype that must be laid to rest. If what Richard Florida is saying in his book is true, then our time, the time for artists and creatives has finally come. Couple this with our current real estate market and you’ve got an unprecedented moment in history that we may truly never see again. Carpe diem baby!!!

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Real Estate Code of Ethics

Colorado is unique in so many ways - from the natural beauty of the Rocky Mountains to our beer brewing Mayor, John Hickenlooper. One of the most powerful differences is the way we do real estate. Yesterday I had the opportunity to take the National Association of Realtors® Ethics class. Here are a few of the things I learned:
- Our real estate Commission was voted #1 in the country for 9 years running.
- The NAR Code of Ethics & Standards of Practice contains 17 Articles outlining a code of conduct and establishes obligations that maybe higher than those mandated by law. These guidelines are geared to protect the consumer.
- Colorado is 1 of only 23 states in the nation with true Buyer Agency Relationship agreements. When I bought my first home in 1987 I was more than a little surprised to discover that even though I had a Buyer’s Agent, my agent in reality worked for the Seller as a sub-agent.
- Of the 41,000 real estate agents in Colorado only 24,000 subscribe to the NAR Code of Ethics. So the next time you buy, sell or invest in real estate make sure your agent has taken the Realtor® pledge.

I PLEDGE MYSELF
To protect the individual right of real estate ownership and to widen the opportunity to enjoy it;
To be honorable and honest in all dealings;
To seek better to represent my clients by building my knowledge and competence;
To act fairly towards all in the spirit of the 
Golden Rule;
To serve well my community, and through it my country;
To observe the REALTORS® Code of Ethics and conform my conduct to its lofty goals.

Great class Wally. Thanks for being a brilliant teacher!

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Denver Tops on "Today" Show

Denver was named "America's #1 city on the verge of recovery from the real-estate slump in a segment on NBC's "Today" show.

Real estate expert Barbara Corcoran, a regular guest on the show, said Denver more than any other U.S. city is "clearly on a rebound."

"It's really the perfect real estate success story," she said. "It had one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation for years running and now they've cut that foreclosure rate in half and they've turned the corner."

Denver, Corcoran said, has "a vibrant downtown, it has a high employment base, it has educated people, it has youth, (and) it has on of the biggest park systems in the country.

"Everything about Denver is pointing up, up, up," she added. "Prices are moving up just now for the first time after seven years."

Rounding out Corcoran's list of cities poised for a real-estate rebound:
2. Raleigh, N.C.
3.Austin, Texas
4. Seattle
5. San Francisco

Corcoran said she included cities on her list on the basis of eight factors:
* Job growth potential;
* A growing population;
* Good weather;
* Lots of tirst-time buyers;
* No overbuilding;
* A vital downtown;
* A well educated population; and
* Foreclosures earlier than other cities.

Denver Business Journal - by Mark Harden 5/19/09

Friday, June 19, 2009

A Powerful Woman!

At various times in my life I have been on THE PATH. By “THE PATH” I mean my right path – the path I was born to walk. When I’m on the right path it’s a high like no other. Hopefully you know the feeling - the outside world goes dark and falls to the wayside - time stands still and nothing else exists – nothing matters except what you are engaged in at that particular moment. All is right with the world. Many people have walked beside me over the years. She not only walked with me, in one case, in particular she helped me build the way.

She was 49 years, 354 days older then I. Our relationship was at first a competition, or so my insecure mind thought. But over the years a relationship grew – one built on mutual respect and love. At varying times our friendship spurred me on, sometimes it pissed me off, mostly it challenged me and even more importantly it gave me permission to keep moving forward even in the face of fear, insecurities or opposition. Because I knew her - because she cared about me – because she was my friend - she will continue to inspire me even though she is now gone. Blanche (Bammy) Tausig Cowperthwaite lived for 100 years & 10 days and we are all better for her having been here.

Stories of her life abound: her service in the Colorado Legislature, her work to gain equal rights for women, the creation of the Virginia Neal Blue Center (dedicated to preserving native weaving techniques from the San Louis Valley and helping women rise out of poverty), her service on the Board of Directors of Mountain Bell, an illustrious career in real estate, her investment in what was at the time a new ski town - Vail. I will leave those stories for others to tell. The story I want to tell is a personal one – and as is true for most of what Bammy did – it has made Denver a better place to live.

Since kindergarten I’d dreamed of being in the theatre – so when my husband, Tee (her youngest) and I moved to Denver in 1991 we set about finding a building to convert into a live performance space. When we found the right building Bammy stepped forward and offered the last chunk of cash we needed to make the purchase possible. She continued to dip into her pocket for construction money – she went with me to events as I networked spreading the news about Denver’s newest theatre space – she sat, as a member of the audience, through countless performances offering her attentive support – and when at last we found the right theatre company who would make the space their home, she stood along side me (and the other partners in the building) patiently negotiating and nurturing until a plan was in place to make the building the theatre company’s permanent home. Acoma Center is no longer ours – last April Curious Theatre Company bought the building at 1080 Acoma. This fantastic and powerful theatre company owns its home. A huge accomplishment, that will help insure Curious Theatre a long and prosperous producing life! And the city of Denver can proudly point to a nationally known, live performance organization that has always paid the artists who’ve worked there.

This brings me full circle back to my PATH – the one I was born to walk. Mine is the path of ensuring that artists and creatively minded people earn a solid living from their efforts. Bammy’s influence on my life - her generosity of friendship, helped bolster much of the courage I needed to make my dreams reality. Her support and belief in what I was doing gave me permission to combine my love of the arts, my passion for artists earning a living, and my latest love - real estate (something she also held dear) into my most recent endeavor – Thriving Artist Alliance – an organization committed to engage, educate and empower creatively minded people to build wealth through real estate.

She believed in me and that has made all the difference. Bammy I want to thank you for your support, love and guidance – it has been an honor and a privilege to walk with you on this path we call life – may you rest in peace.